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IK3IUL

Utente Normale


Inserito il - 03/07/2018 : 14:11:15  Link diretto a questa discussione  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di IK3IUL Invia a IK3IUL un Messaggio Privato
Per maggiori conoscenze
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IRTAM ---In fondo pagina due immagini relative
allo STRATO HmF2 in KM .



Archivio e real time ionosonde
e fresche notizie di Solar Actvity
FATENE BUON USO PER CAPIRE BENE IL COMPORTAMENTO
DELLA PROPAGAZIONE IONOSFERICA IN MODO ALTAMENTE SCIENTIFICO-
E fresche NEWS da NOAA


:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 09 1703 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2907
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 09 1646 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2906
Begin Time: 2019 Feb 01 2230 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3798 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2099
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 08 2209 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2019 Feb 08 2209 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3592
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 08 2203 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2019 Feb 08 2205 UTC
Valid To: 2019 Feb 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------



:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 02 1218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2899
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 01 2234 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2019 Feb 01 2230 UTC
Station: GOES-15
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3589
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 01 2220 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3588
Valid From: 2019 Jan 31 1318 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2019 Feb 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3588
Issue Time: 2019 Feb 01 1456 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3587
Valid From: 2019 Jan 31 1318 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2019 Feb 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------



:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2019 Jan 27 1233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2895
Issue Time: 2019 Jan 26 1456 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2894
Begin Time: 2019 Jan 25 1730 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1408 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

#-------------------------------------------------:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1322Z from Region 2733 (N05W34). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan,
28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/0952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2053 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29
Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 077
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2019 Jan 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 27 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Jan 2019
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2733 N06W34 260 0080 Dsi 10 16 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z Jan
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0128 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/s...ion-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 January 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 14-15 Jan and normal levels on 16-20 Jan. A peak
flux of 321 pfu was observed at 14/0005 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels with
isolated unsettled intervals early on 15 Jan, late on 16 Jan, early
on 17 Jan and late on 19 Jan. The isolated unsettled periods were
due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. During the
period, solar wind parameters were generally at nominal levels.
However, a slight enhancement was observed midday 17 Jan through
early 18 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. During this
time frame, total field peaked at 10 nT, the Bz component reached a
maximum southward extent of -8 nT and wind speeds peaked at about
515 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 January - 16 February 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-25 Jan, 28 Jan-01
Feb and 07-16 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 26-27 Jan
and again on 02-06 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 23-26 Jan, with G1 (Minor) storms conditions likely on 24
Jan, all due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH
HSS. Unsettled to active levels are again possible on 31 Jan-03 Feb
due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at predominately
quiet levels.





:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jan 07 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/s...ion-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 December - 06 January 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels on 31 Dec - 05 Jan and
increased to low levels on 06 Jan due to an isolated C1 flare at
06/1051 UTC from Region 2732 (N09, L=215, class/area Cao/090 on 03
Jan). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 05 Jan and normal to moderate levels on 01-04 Jan.
High levels were observed on 31 Dec and 06 Jan due to enhancements
associated with recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
The largest flux of the period was 2,020 pfu observed at 31/1930
UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels. Solar wind parameters began the period under a waning
positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from
approximately 520 km/s on 31 Dec to 290 km/s by 03 Jan with total
field at or below 6 nT. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to
unsettled levels on 31 Dec - 01 Jan while quiet levels were observed
on 02-03 Jan. At approximately 04/0420 UTC, total field began to
increase to a maximum of 13 nT at 04/1705 UTC which was indicative
of the arrival of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS. The Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT at 05/0200
UTC. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 565 km/s at 06/1350
UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly unsettled periods
late on 04 Jan, quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Jan, and
quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Jan.



Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 January - 02 February 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 07-19 Jan
with a chance for C-flare activity on 20 Jan - 02 Feb due to the
return of old Region 2732 (N09, L=215).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 07-12 Jan, 25-27 Jan and again on
02 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
07, 26 and 31 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16
Jan, 24-25 Jan and 01-02 Feb. G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 24
Jan. Levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.





:No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at moderate levels 19 Nov-1 Dec. Predominately
high levels are likely 2 Dec-13 Dec due to a pair of recurrent CH
HSSs. Moderate levels are likely 14-15 Dec as CH HSS influence
wanes.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled
levels 19-22 Nov due to a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs.
Predominately quiet levels are expected 23-30 Nov under nominal
solar wind conditions. Active conditions are expected on 01 Dec due
to a SSBC ahead of a recurrent positive polarity CH. G1 (Minor)
storming is likely 02 Dec due to the CIR in advance of the HSS of
the aforementioned positive polarity CH. Unsettled conditions are
expected 03-06 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes. Active conditons are
likely 07-08 Dec due to HSS influence from a recurrent, negative
polarity CH. Mostly unsettled conditions, with a chance of active
intervals, is expected 09 Dec as the negative polarity CH HSS
influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period.


:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 1148 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3558
Issue Time: 2018 Nov 06 0548 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3557
Valid From: 2018 Nov 04 1906 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2018 Nov 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 023/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 011/015-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 310 Issued at 0245Z on 06 Nov 2018
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Nov
A. Energetic Events
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
B. Proton Events: None.
C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field reached
major storm levels.
D. Stratwarm: Not Available
E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 022/030 X-ray Background <A1.0
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 3.2e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W130 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 5.50e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W130 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder 4 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 Planetary 4 6 5 5 3 3 3 2
F. Comments: None
:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 310 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Nov 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z Nov
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/s...ion-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 October - 04 November 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained
spotless through the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels with a peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 30/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels during the period. The majority of the period was under
nominal solar wind conditions with solar wind speeds between 285-365
km/s and total field at or below 6 nT. Total field began to increase
at 04/0925 UTC and reached a maximum of 16 nT at 04/2225 UTC. The Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -12 nT at
04/2129 UTC. Solar wind speed began to increase at 04/1430 UTC to a
maximum of 500 km/s at 04/2336 UTC as a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic
field was quiet on 29 Oct - 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were
observed late on 04 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 November - 01 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the
forecast period (05 Nov - 01 Dec).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 07-16 Nov due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 05-07 Nov, 10-11 Nov, and again on 01 Dec with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels expected on 05 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.


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:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-10-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Oct 15 72 10 3
2018 Oct 16 72 5 2
2018 Oct 17 72 5 2
2018 Oct 18 72 12 4
2018 Oct 19 72 18 5
2018 Oct 20 72 10 3
2018 Oct 21 72 5 3
2018 Oct 22 70 10 3
2018 Oct 23 70 8 3
2018 Oct 24 70 5 2
2018 Oct 25 69 5 2
2018 Oct 26 69 10 3
2018 Oct 27 69 5 2
2018 Oct 28 69 5 2
2018 Oct 29 69 5 2
2018 Oct 30 69 5 2
2018 Oct 31 69 5 2
2018 Nov 01 69 5 2
2018 Nov 02 69 5 2
2018 Nov 03 69 22 5
2018 Nov 04 69 20 5
2018 Nov 05 70 15 4
2018 Nov 06 70 15 4
2018 Nov 07 72 8 3
2018 Nov 08 72 5 2
2018 Nov 09 72 12 3
2018 Nov 10 72 8 3


QRG: 10.144 MHZ CW w DATA RTTY PSK31 al minuto 20 e 50

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alla prossima. de ik3iul Silverio Ari Verona


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AREA SUNSPOT VISIBILE : 2724 e 2725
STOP-

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Scarica allegato:
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Modificato da - IK3IUL in Data 10/02/2019 14:39:05

 Messaggi: 72  ~  Membro dal: 04/02/2014  ~  Ultima visita: 10/02/2019

ik0fta

Utente Medio

Nota: 

Inserito il - 18/09/2018 : 08:14:49  Link diretto a questa risposta  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di ik0fta Invia a ik0fta un Messaggio Privato

Buongiorno.
Non vorrei sbagliarmi ma il titolo del thread è fuorviante.
Il riportare le previsioni della attività solari del NOAA è una cosa, sicuramente, molto rilevante per tutte le gamme radio e non solo per i 50 MHz.
La propagazione in 6m - almeno durante gli anni di minima - è poco "prevedibile" (almeno cercando di ricavarla dai dati pubblicati) essendo - prevalentemente - limitata al fenomeno dell'Esporadico e non leggo, poi, sull'argomento, alcuna analisi specifica.
Nei periodi di maggiore attività solare (fra 3 o 4 anni) la cosa sarà differente ma le previsioni NOAA riguarderanno, sempre e comunque, l'attività solare con relativa influenza sulle onde radio in tutte le gamme (non solo e non prevalentemente i sei metri).
Non sarebbe il caso di dare al thread un nome più corretto come, ad esempio: "Weekly Highlights and Forecasts by Noaa" o cosa similare?



Messaggio di IK3IUL

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 September 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07,
Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of
the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage
in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on
12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All
enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive
polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1
levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep,
geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT
late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11
Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to
active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds
persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase
to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds
decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet
levels on 16 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 September - 13 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in
electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels
are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on
17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected
on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated
geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.











  Firma di ik0fta 
Sergio, IK0FTA - Sez. 0001 - ARI Roma.

Contro la dittatura Asburgica Brecht avrebbe detto : "Una risata vi seppellirà" ;-) .. L'Asburgo illegale dei 45m (cqww docet), è nudo!!!

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ik0fta

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Inserito il - 23/09/2018 : 10:17:18  Link diretto a questa risposta  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di ik0fta Invia a ik0fta un Messaggio Privato
Grazie per aver cambiato il titolo Silverio mutandolo da "propagazione 50 MHz" all'attuale molto più corretto... Ancora complimenti per il tuo lavoro di ricerca e diffusione!
73' Sergio


Messaggio di IK3IUL

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 22 1118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1243
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1242
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 22 0001 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 21 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1496
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2356 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2018 Sep 21 2355 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Sep 22 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2077
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2344 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 21 2345 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3537
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2333 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2018 Sep 21 2335 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Sep 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 265 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Sep 2018
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Sep
A. Energetic Events
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
B. Proton Events: None.
C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was active.
D. Stratwarm: Not Available
E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/006 X-ray Background <A1.0
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 2.0e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 4.30e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Planetary 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4
F. Comments: Boulder magnetometer is currently fixing equipment
issues.
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 September 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07,
Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of
the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage
in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on
12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All
enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive
polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1
levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep,
geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT
late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11
Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to
active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds
persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase
to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds
decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet
levels on 16 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 September - 13 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in
electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels
are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on
17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected
on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated
geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.












Modificato da - ik0fta in data 23/09/2018 10:19:21

  Firma di ik0fta 
Sergio, IK0FTA - Sez. 0001 - ARI Roma.

Contro la dittatura Asburgica Brecht avrebbe detto : "Una risata vi seppellirà" ;-) .. L'Asburgo illegale dei 45m (cqww docet), è nudo!!!

 Messaggi: 484  ~  Membro dal: 17/01/2011  ~  Ultima visita: 06/11/2018 Torna all'inizio della Pagina
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