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Utente Normale

Inserito il - 03/07/2018 : 14:11:15  Link diretto a questa discussione  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di IK3IUL Invia a IK3IUL un Messaggio Privato
Buone vacanze e ottimi DX in Magic Band.

A conferma delle considerazioni fatte:
FoF2 prossima o superiore a CINQUE
Apertura Espor--F2 con JA.
Verificate oggi 11 luglio 09.30 utc sia il cluster proposto e
la ionosonda roma il cui valore FoF2 vale 4.9 e quota E spor 113 km.

:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jul 17 1748 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3502
Issue Time: 2018 Jul 17 0552 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2018 Jul 17 0551 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Jul 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0150 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 July 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the reporting period. The
visible disk produced several plage regions but no visible spots
were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 09-11 Jul
and 13-17 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with several periods of
unsettled observed on 11-12 Jul. A slow-moving transient signature
was observed in the solar wind midday on 10 Jul from a CME first
observed in STEREO AHEAD COR 2 imagery early on 05 Jul. A decrease
in solar wind speeds was observed, after the onset, which lowered
winds from near 385 km/s to 309 km/s at its slowest point on 11 Jul.
Total magnetic field strength peaked at arrival with 13 nT. Bz was
mostly oriented either near neutral or northward which produced a
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic response throughout the duration of
the transient.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 July - 11 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain very low throughout the outlook

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from moderate to high levels. Moderate to high
level are expected over 21-31 Jul and normal to moderate levels are
expected through the remainder of the outlook period. All
enhancements in the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled levels are expected on
16 Jul, 21 Jul and 24 Jul; active levels are expected on 20 Jul and
22 Jul; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 23 Jul.
All increases in geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 17/1815Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 16/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 071
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/40

de ik3iul Silverio

Modificato da - IK3IUL in Data Ieri 13:20:59

 Messaggi: 64  ~  Membro dal: 04/02/2014  ~  Ultima visita: Ieri
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