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IK3IUL

Utente Normale


Inserito il - 03/07/2018 : 14:11:15  Link diretto a questa discussione  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di IK3IUL Invia a IK3IUL un Messaggio Privato
Per maggiori conoscenze
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehou...8/WeeklyPDF/

archivio dati solari

:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 1148 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3558
Issue Time: 2018 Nov 06 0548 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3557
Valid From: 2018 Nov 04 1906 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2018 Nov 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 023/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 011/015-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 310 Issued at 0245Z on 06 Nov 2018
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Nov
A. Energetic Events
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
B. Proton Events: None.
C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field reached
major storm levels.
D. Stratwarm: Not Available
E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 022/030 X-ray Background <A1.0
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 3.2e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W130 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 5.50e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W130 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder 4 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 Planetary 4 6 5 5 3 3 3 2
F. Comments: None
:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2018 Nov 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 310 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Nov 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Nov
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z Nov
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Nmbr Lat Lo
None
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 05 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/s...ion-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 October - 04 November 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained
spotless through the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels with a peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 30/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels during the period. The majority of the period was under
nominal solar wind conditions with solar wind speeds between 285-365
km/s and total field at or below 6 nT. Total field began to increase
at 04/0925 UTC and reached a maximum of 16 nT at 04/2225 UTC. The Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -12 nT at
04/2129 UTC. Solar wind speed began to increase at 04/1430 UTC to a
maximum of 500 km/s at 04/2336 UTC as a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic
field was quiet on 29 Oct - 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were
observed late on 04 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 November - 01 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the
forecast period (05 Nov - 01 Dec).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 07-16 Nov due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 05-07 Nov, 10-11 Nov, and again on 01 Dec with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels expected on 05 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.


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:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-10-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Oct 15 72 10 3
2018 Oct 16 72 5 2
2018 Oct 17 72 5 2
2018 Oct 18 72 12 4
2018 Oct 19 72 18 5
2018 Oct 20 72 10 3
2018 Oct 21 72 5 3
2018 Oct 22 70 10 3
2018 Oct 23 70 8 3
2018 Oct 24 70 5 2
2018 Oct 25 69 5 2
2018 Oct 26 69 10 3
2018 Oct 27 69 5 2
2018 Oct 28 69 5 2
2018 Oct 29 69 5 2
2018 Oct 30 69 5 2
2018 Oct 31 69 5 2
2018 Nov 01 69 5 2
2018 Nov 02 69 5 2
2018 Nov 03 69 22 5
2018 Nov 04 69 20 5
2018 Nov 05 70 15 4
2018 Nov 06 70 15 4
2018 Nov 07 72 8 3
2018 Nov 08 72 5 2
2018 Nov 09 72 12 3
2018 Nov 10 72 8 3


QRG: 10.144 MHZ CW w DATA RTTY PSK31 al minuto 20 e 50

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----------------------------------------------------------------------------
alla prossima. de ik3iul Silverio Ari Verona


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AREA SUNSPOT VISIBILE : 2724 e 2725
STOP-

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Scarica allegato:
20181016185148_NOAAscales.pdf








Modificato da - IK3IUL in Data 06/11/2018 12:57:57

 Messaggi: 70  ~  Membro dal: 04/02/2014  ~  Ultima visita: Ieri

ik0fta

Utente Medio

Nota: 

Inserito il - 18/09/2018 : 08:14:49  Link diretto a questa risposta  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di ik0fta Invia a ik0fta un Messaggio Privato

Buongiorno.
Non vorrei sbagliarmi ma il titolo del thread è fuorviante.
Il riportare le previsioni della attività solari del NOAA è una cosa, sicuramente, molto rilevante per tutte le gamme radio e non solo per i 50 MHz.
La propagazione in 6m - almeno durante gli anni di minima - è poco "prevedibile" (almeno cercando di ricavarla dai dati pubblicati) essendo - prevalentemente - limitata al fenomeno dell'Esporadico e non leggo, poi, sull'argomento, alcuna analisi specifica.
Nei periodi di maggiore attività solare (fra 3 o 4 anni) la cosa sarà differente ma le previsioni NOAA riguarderanno, sempre e comunque, l'attività solare con relativa influenza sulle onde radio in tutte le gamme (non solo e non prevalentemente i sei metri).
Non sarebbe il caso di dare al thread un nome più corretto come, ad esempio: "Weekly Highlights and Forecasts by Noaa" o cosa similare?



Messaggio di IK3IUL

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 September 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07,
Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of
the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage
in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on
12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All
enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive
polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1
levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep,
geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT
late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11
Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to
active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds
persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase
to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds
decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet
levels on 16 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 September - 13 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in
electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels
are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on
17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected
on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated
geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.











  Firma di ik0fta 
Sergio, IK0FTA - Sez. 0001 - ARI Roma.

Contro la dittatura Asburgica Brecht avrebbe detto : "Una risata vi seppellirà" ;-) .. L'Asburgo illegale dei 45m (cqww docet), è nudo!!!

 Messaggi: 484  ~  Membro dal: 17/01/2011  ~  Ultima visita: 06/11/2018 Torna all'inizio della Pagina

ik0fta

Utente Medio

Nota: 

Inserito il - 23/09/2018 : 10:17:18  Link diretto a questa risposta  Mostra Profilo  Visita l'Homepage di ik0fta Invia a ik0fta un Messaggio Privato
Grazie per aver cambiato il titolo Silverio mutandolo da "propagazione 50 MHz" all'attuale molto più corretto... Ancora complimenti per il tuo lavoro di ricerca e diffusione!
73' Sergio


Messaggio di IK3IUL

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 22 1118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1243
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1242
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 22 0001 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 21 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1496
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2356 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2018 Sep 21 2355 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Sep 22 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2077
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2344 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2018 Sep 21 2345 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3537
Issue Time: 2018 Sep 21 2333 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2018 Sep 21 2335 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Sep 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

#-------------------------------------------------
:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2018 Sep 22 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 265 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Sep 2018
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Sep
A. Energetic Events
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
None
B. Proton Events: None.
C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was active.
D. Stratwarm: Not Available
E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/006 X-ray Background <A1.0
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 2.0e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 4.30e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Planetary 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4
F. Comments: Boulder magnetometer is currently fixing equipment
issues.
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 September 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07,
Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of
the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage
in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on
12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All
enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive
polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1
levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep,
geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT
late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11
Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to
active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds
persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase
to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds
decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet
levels on 16 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 September - 13 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in
electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels
are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on
17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected
on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated
geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.












Modificato da - ik0fta in data 23/09/2018 10:19:21

  Firma di ik0fta 
Sergio, IK0FTA - Sez. 0001 - ARI Roma.

Contro la dittatura Asburgica Brecht avrebbe detto : "Una risata vi seppellirà" ;-) .. L'Asburgo illegale dei 45m (cqww docet), è nudo!!!

 Messaggi: 484  ~  Membro dal: 17/01/2011  ~  Ultima visita: 06/11/2018 Torna all'inizio della Pagina
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